NVAX. Ned, this is from a motley fool article from a couple days ago that there is s link to on finviz.
this does not make anyone want to hold the stock for long. little bit like a grenade. a lot of outstanding shares here with little track record and early stages. really i bought here originally because of the offering at 3.14 and because got that done at multi year highs.
this could be a case of going back to an ex girlfriend that you shouldn't. but institutional ownership is high, over 50% and looking for bounce only. i shouldnt be back overly long.
<<Novavax (NASDAQ: NVAX )
The biotechnology sector offers a number of wildcard, predominantly clinical-stage stocks that have the potential to double -- or halve -- their value depending on the outcome of a single trial or two. One company that tends to fit the mold here is Novavax.
Novavax is a developer of vaccines designed to treat infectious diseases around the globe. The good news for shareholders is that Novavax is already generating revenue thanks to an influenza vaccine research contract through BARDA, as well as a handful of collaborative partnerships. Although Novavax could be giving up some of its earning potential by partnering up, it can also spread its costs and risks, allowing it more opportunities to find that elusive home run in the biotech sector.
Currently, the most exciting research ongoing for Novavax is a phase 2 study for respiratory syncytial virus, or RSV, a disease that infects a patient's lungs and breathing passages. Most people can recover from RSV infection, but it can be more serious for infants and the elderly. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, nearly all children will be infected with RSV by age two, hence the need for additional research.
However, investors may also want to consider that even though Novavax's pipeline is still young and predominantly unproven, the company is being valued at more than $1 billion in terms of overall value. It's quite possible that Novavax will continue to burn cash for the foreseeable future as it invests in new development programs and moves forward with its ongoing phase 1 and phase 2 studies. This doesn't necessarily mean the company won't succeed, but it does put downside pressure on a company that has historically produced losses and had a cumulative free-cash outflow of $279 million over the past decade.
It also wouldn't take much for Novavax to be knocked off its high horse if one of its primary studies in either RSV or influenza didn't meet its goals. I would personally guess that more than half of Novavax's current value is built into the success of its RSV and influenza platform, so a disappointment in either of these studies could seriously affect Novavax's share price.
One way or another, this has big-move potential, and risk-friendly investors should have this company on their watchlists.>>
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