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postyle

03/19/14 10:15 PM

#482 RE: NAT55611 #481

Well, yes. That is why we are here. This is a company using the CLGL shell to emerge as a new publicly traded intellectual property company.

While there are potentially hundreds of millions to be gained should the company hit a home run against Google, I would caution people from thinking they could win "billions upon billions". There simply are not multiple billion dollar court awards. Realistic expectations are important and I hate to break the news, but the largest surviving patent victories are close to one billion U.S. dollars, but not much more. And those are very rare and the majority have been overturned by higher courts down the line (i.e. the massive awards did not survive) and involved patent infringement on a much larger scale & included the full period of capturing past infringement (6 years).

For starters, with CLGL vs GOOG we are not talking about six years (the maximum allowed by law) of past infringement. The actual complaint alleges infringement since 2011. So it's less than three years. In addition, we do not know the royalty base. Google's Street View and Google Earth products contribute how much revenue? Anybody? Exactly. Google makes 95% of its revenues through advertising. How much can be apportioned to the infringing products and services? Certainly not a majority of revenues.

Now, obviously, the royalty base will be significant - whatever it is. We will just have to wait until the case proceeds to get more information. And then we can hopefully ascertain what potential royalty rate we are looking at. 2% ? 3% ? 5% or more? Again, nobody knows until expert testimony is proffered and we see what the plaintiffs (Visual Real Estate... aka CLGL) are asking for. One nice thing is that VRE has asserted willful infringement against Google. While this doesn't mean that treble damages are guaranteed (triple damages are a very rare outcome in patent infringement judgements), it does increase the potential opportunity and creates additional pressure on GOOG to settle at some point -- especially if the case is not going well for them. But that is getting way, way, way ahead of ourselves.

My first buys were at .03 and my current plan is to let this thing play out while I patiently acquire over the next several weeks. That means adding in tranches as this thing blows in the wind. Most likely I will be buying somewhere in the .02s later this week.

Where we are now is in the early stages of a reverse merger. I have a spec position here because I have historically enjoyed the great rewards of investing very early in pre-revenue patent litigation plays. The market (mainly retail investors and swing traders) is very slow at understanding the fundamentals of these companies, the realistic opportunities that exist, and the true capital structures of reverse merger plays. The tendency is almost always to overstate the potential and to understate the true number of shares that exist on a fully diluted basis. This tends to accelerate valuations and leads to frenetic buying as certain legal events transpire.

Also, I appreciate the individuals backing CLGL. They have a history of success in the IP sector. One of the names associated with MV Portfolios, Inc is Barry Honig. I consider this man to be a rock star when it comes to investing in early stage patent companies. You can see all the involved parties here: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1363573/000135448814001116/clgl_prer14a.htm

We are very early in this one. Shares will be volatile and trading will be very thin at times leading to terrible price spreads and trouble filling orders. This could go significantly lower before the dust settles. It could also skyrocket in the near future. I do not have a crystal ball and think that it is virtually impossible to guess which way the wind blows in the near future and how strong that wind is... but I think down the line this will return multiples on our early investments. There is a great law firm backing VRE in this litigation (DLA Piper) and Honig knows how to pick winners.

Good luck to all playing this one.