Replies to post #175683 on Biotech Values

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ALDR > up 11% today and >50% since May 27. IPO'd on May 8 @ $10...

UPDATE: Credit Suisse Initiates On Alder Biopharmaceuticals, Optimistic On 'Derisked' Assets

In a report published Monday, Credit Suisse analyst Jason Kantor initiated coverage on Alder Biopharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: ALDR) with an Outperform rating and $20.00 price target.

Kantor is optimistic on an antibody platform with “highly potent” drug candidates and a couple derisked phase II assets. The analyst emphasized the benefits of the company's use of yeast to optimize antibody production.

Credit Suisse wrote, “This technology overcomes many of the limitations of traditional antibody manufacturing: (1) low cost of production in yeast, (2) rapid scale up and high yields with the manufacturing process, (3) generation of a clinical candidate in a short period of time, and (4) ability to apply this technology to a wide range of therapeutic areas.”

In addition to Alder Biopharmaceuticals work on antibody production, the company has made progress with the efficacy of ALD403 for migraines. With one treatment for a three-month period, 16 percent of those treated were migraine free for the period versus zero percent for the placebo. Thirty-two percent had a 75 percent reduction versus nine percent for the placebo.

The analyst expects “(1) clazakizumab Phase II data in psoriatic arthritis, (2) the initiation of Phase III testing for clazakizumab in RA, and (3) the initiation of additional Phase II trials for ALD403,” over the next 12 months. Credit Suisse assigns a 55 percent probability for success to ALD 403 and first sales in 2019.

Shares of Alder Biopharmaceuticals closed at $10.74 on Friday.

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ALDR, BMY > Bristol-Myers Kicks Arthritis Drug Back to Alder, Shares Tumble

http://www.xconomy.com/seattle/2014/09/02/bristol-myers-kicks-arthritis-drug-back-to-alder-shares-tumble/

Alder Biopharmaceuticals rode a big deal with Bristol-Myers Squibb to the public markets earlier this year, where it’s seen its value climb by more than 30 percent. Starting today, however, the Bothell, WA-based company is going to move forward without that safety net.

Alder (NASDAQ: ALDR) said today that following a portfolio review, the big New York drugmaker has decided to end the deal it has in place with Alder for the rheumatoid arthritis drug prospect clazakizumab. On one hand, Alder will now own all of the rights to clazakizumab and its migraine drug, ALD-403, and the potential profits that could go with them—something executives tried to stress on a conference call with analysts this morning.

“We’re excited about this development and think it represents a significant opportunity for Alder,” president and CEO Randall Schatzman said on the call.

On the other hand, however, Alder, a roughly 80-employee company, now may have to foot the bill for a big, costly Phase 3 study, or find a new partner to take on those costs. What’s more, Alder will now lose out on the $1 billion-plus in milestone payments it had been eligible to receive under the deal it cut with Bristol in 2009 (the company had brought in $103.5 million in payments from that deal as of March). And, deserved or not, there is always a stigma attached to a drug that Big Pharma gives up on.

Alder didn’t give much insight as to why Bristol changed its tune on clazakizumab, only noting that it was because of a “portfolio prioritization.” Schatzman said it wasn’t as if Bristol saw any new safety or efficacy data, or technical issues and balked, however. Alder presented positive Phase 2 data for the drug last year.

“All the data that is out there in the public space that we believe is very favorable and we believe shows a very beneficial risk/benefit profile for this molecule are still on the table,” Schatzman said. “I think that it’s clear that Big Pharma has a routine, evaluates their pipeline and where they want to spend their hard-earned dollars, and in this case they set a different priority for where to spend those dollars.”

[Updated with comments from Bristol-Myers] A Bristol spokesperson told Xconomy that despite the efficacy clazakizumab showed in Phase 2, “the projected profile” of the drug “did not meet [Bristol's] criteria” to start a Phase 3 trial.