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Replies to post #175492 on Biotech Values
**On 3/14 IMS prescription data for Sovaldi were released for the week ending 3/14/2014, the 14th week of Sovaldi's launch.
**The week's total prescriptions for Sovaldi were7,313, a change of +7.0% vs. last week's 6,835.
**The week's new prescriptions for Sovaldi were 4,118, a change of +3.6% vs. last week's 3,974 and back to the levels they
were at two weeks ago.
**Plugging these new numbers into our proprietary Sovaldi projector, we believe U.S. Sovaldi sales could reach the following
under these scenarios:
(1) Base case secondary warehousing growth in new patient starts slows Q2Q3 then picks up again Q4 $9.07B, up from $8.73B
(2) Rapidly decaying Sovaldi new patient starts throughout remainder of year (bear case) $7.50B, up from $6.97B
(3) Sovaldi new patient starts level off for rest of year $13.16B, up from $12.52B
(4) Week over week NRx changes match those seen with Incivek+Victrelis at same point in launch $11.76B, down from $11.91B.
**We note a few caveats, which is that there is limited data from which to extrapolate IMS's capture rate since we only have
one quarter of actual sales.
**BOTTOM LINE: We expect this bounce back in new Sovaldi prescriptions should provide reassurance that following last
week's decline, room for additional adoption remains even before the all oral availability approaches nearer. Even allowing
for some slowdown as the year progresses and greater competition next year, we continue to believe the overall longterm
HCV opportunity and sustainability, along with the company's pipeline and HIV revenue foundation, are not fully reflected
in GILD's valuation.
