Replies to post #47805 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[Hotrodder1]

I agree

[STOCKSEEK]

I really think you are missing the fundamentals of valuation - and - the realities of market dynamics in these comments.

Time always tells the tale but that doesn't mean there will not be a lot of static along the way. The fact is the gems often have the most static because there is most to be gained, the MM's and big money know it.

Do you think for one second Denner would shell out the magnitude of money he has behind this unless he knew it was a home run in the making? Not a snow balls chance...

Valuation - asset based or future net cash flows...

Anyway I look at it paints a very good picture and I have, yes the pipeline will need funding but they will get it and it will come through major partnership or buyout if they really want to maximize the value of what the have developed and the intellectual property they hold.

No matter which option they take one thing I am sure of is it will be materially accreditive to shareholder value and by multiples.

JMHO

[vidpok45]

a.h.

[jochenVt]

And why should be share price keep on declining just because the company needs to raise money.
If the market is efficient (and this of course is a big if) then the share price should at any given point in time reflect risks and opportunities (and the probabilities that these risks and oppurtunities fulfill themselves). So if Ariad spends more to start a trial that has a good chance of success and opens new avenues, then I would expect share-price to rise even though more funding is required.
If share price declines because the costs get higher, then this implies that the market does not think the money is spent wisely.
I think after the crash, Ariad has done a pretty good job to cut all expenses/trials that are nice to have and focused on low hanging fruits only.
Yes, costs increase compared to their predictions 3-4 months ago, because Iclusiq has been reintroduced and a new trial is required to optimze dosing. I don´t think anybody would claim that agreeing to this trial was a mistake even though it increased costs.
The same will be true for GIST registration trial if started, ´113 front-line or the new molecule.