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Replies to #24476 on Biotech Values

DewDiligence

02/23/06 3:08 AM

#24478 RE: AlpineBV_Miller #24476

Re: IMCL

>was the last sentence really necessary, Dew?<

I was astonished that the cited excerpt was yours. Normally, we may differ on opinions, but I’ve never seen you get your facts wrong. Now that you’ve explained that you were misquoted, I retract my comment.

Actually, this is a case where our opinions—at least on valuation—are not far off from one another. I do not think IMCL at 38 is a screaming buy, but neither do I think that it’s clearly overpriced.

I picked up IMCL last July at 32 and sold half of it at 36 last month (#msg-9149699). If it goes up a bit more, I may sell the rest. Regards, Dew

randychub

02/23/06 8:19 AM

#24494 RE: AlpineBV_Miller #24476

David - This my be true but it is a long way off. There could well be other improvements in cancer drugs before this ever happens.

"If "nimo's" efficacy in early trials is confirmed in pivotal trials, both Erbitux and p-mab will be abandoned by the marketplace"

I believe there are over 100 erbitux trials in process. There is a handful of nimo trials being executed and only for niche areas of the market. Your talking 5-7 years down the road here.

I own YMI and IMCL and I agree on the current valuation. If Imclone is not bought out and CRC first line data or NSCLC is up to par with Avastin things will certainly change.

Randy