Replies to post #24470 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Factual misstatements re Erbitux:

>ImClone (IMCL) has a nearly $3B market cap on the strength of a drug that sells about $400M a year now and is declining in sales because patients and doctors decided they hate the rash.<

Let’s take these misstatements one at a time:

1. The annualized Erbitux sales from the most recent quarter are almost $500M (not $400M) and that’s just the U.S. and a tiny contribution from Canada. Worldwide annualized Erbitux sales in the most recent quarter are more than $750M.

2. Erbitux sales are growing strongly in all geographies. 4Q05 U.S. sales grew by almost 40% vs 4Q04. An additional FDA approved indication—head and neck cancer—is expected in the next week, which ought to increase the growth rate to some degree.

3. I’ve not seen any evidence that doctors are withholding Erbitux treatment from a significant number of patients on account of the rash.

4. IMCL’s market cap is not just for Erbitux. The company has substantial net cash, manufacturing assets, and an oncology pipeline (#msg-9344961).

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If the excerpt you cited above is really from Miller’s newsletter, I’m glad I’m not paying to subscribe.

p.s. Please see #msg-9380601.

[DewDiligence]

Another IMCL misstatement from David Miller:

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/ImClone-Amgen-Genentech-Dendreon/index/a/12868

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May 18, 2007

ImClone (IMCL) has critical data for its lead drug Erbitux coming at ASCO, the so-called “Crystal” trial. Vectibix, Amgen’s (AMGN) competitive drug, failed a roughly similar trial to much fanfare and damage to Amgen’s stock. So, all eyes are on the Crystal data to be released at ASCO.
<<

No, David, the Vectibix PACCE trial (the one that failed due to high toxicity) was not “roughly similar” to the Erbitux CRYSTAL trial. PACCE included dual biologics—Avastin+Vectibix—added to chemotherapy and it thus was a very, very different kind of trial from CRYSTAL, which tests front-line chemo +/- Erbitux.

Readers of this board may recall another gaffe that Miller made with respect to IMCL when he reported in early 2006 that Erbitux sales were declining: #msg-9839046. In reality, Erbitux sales were growing at about 40% year-over-year at the time that Miller wrote that! (Miller subsequently claimed he was misquoted.)

David, my advice to you is to keep quiet about matters pertaining to IMCL. You’re a fine asset to this message board but, when it comes to IMCL, you do not seem to know what you are talking about.