Replies to post #631518 on *SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE* ($$$)

[Zephyr]

Personal Income and Outlays
Released On 3/3/2014 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Personal Income - M/M change 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.0 % to 0.4 % 0.3 %
Consumer Spending - M/M change 0.4 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.0 % to 0.3 % 0.4 %
PCE Price Index -- M/M change 0.2 % -0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.3 %
Core PCE price index - M/M change 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.1 %
Personal Income - Yr/Yr change -0.8 % -0.7 % 4.1 %
Consumer Spending - Yr/Yr change 3.6 % 3.2 % 3.5 %
PCE Price Index -- Y/Y change 1.1 % 1.1 % 1.2 %
Core PCE price index - Yr/Yr change 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.1 %
Highlights
The consumer sector was mostly positive for January in terms of income but spending was questionable despite a good headline number. Personal income rose 0.3 percent following no change in December. Expectations were for 0.2 percent. The important wages & salaries component was not as strong, rebounding 0.2 percent in January after a 0.1 percent dip in December.

Spending jumped 0.4 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase in December. But it was all services which spiked 0.9 percent after a modest 0.1 percent rise in December. Tugged down by autos, durables declined 0.6 percent in January, following a 0.1 percent advance the prior month. Nondurables dropped 0.7 percent after jumping 0.8 percent in December.

Regarding personal consumption, the Commerce Department noted the impact of the Affordable Care Act on services.

"Measures of health care services were boosted $29.0 billion to reflect the effect of the ACA on demand for these services."

Headline prices rose 0.1 percent, following a 0.2 percent boost the month before. Core price inflation held steady with a 0.1 percent for each of the latest months.

On a year ago basis, headline inflation was 1.2 percent in January versus 1.1 percent the month before. Core inflation nudged eased to 1.1 percent from 1.2 percent.

Going back to income analysis, some special factors came into play. The Commerce Department noted:

"The change in the January estimate of personal income was affected by several special factors. Personal income in January was boosted by several provisions of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), which affected government social benefit payments to persons. In addition, personal income was boosted by cost-of-living adjustments to several federal transfer programs and by pay raises for civilian and military personnel. In contrast, the change in personal income in January was reduced by the expiration of Emergency Unemployment Compensation programs and by lump-sum social security benefit payments that had boosted December personal income. In summary, excluding all of these special factors, personal income increased $23.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, in January, in contrast to a decrease of $15.1 billion, or 0.1 percent, in December."

Overall, we are still in a few months of uncertainty due to atypically adverse winter weather weighing on consumer spending-consumers often have preferred to stay inside than shop. Numbers may improve for March.