The numbers are helpful,
But where does the $15 per barrel come from as operator profit? Can you please cite the source for that? The best I could come up with when I looked into this was $4-$7.
Also, do we have any kind of benchmark on that 10% figure? 90% is a lot to leave on the table, isn't it? After all, after fabrication and install costs, there's only a bit of maintenance. The AOT is a chunk of metal with an electricity box attached to it. It's cheap. The only value is that IP in there.
A few other factors:
The issue is 200m, but the float is 164m or so. So your divisor there is too big. Plus, let's hope for a higher PE (as moorea9 suggests.) I also hope that they grow accounts faster than that. I also expect that we'll hear about prototypes and commercial versions of the Upstream AOT this year. And, to be quite honest, I hope that there is a lot of buzz and excitement about the company which helps to drive the price up really high. I don't want to wait 7 years for those share prices.
Your sober and conservative numbers are helpful though, for a baseline scenario. It's good to anchor the discussion in firm numbers and estimates, however many caveats we may then add to them.
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