Replies to post #160088 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[newbieee]

Why is that troubling?

[Hellassss]

There is however something else that troubles me and that unless an error occurred should at least raise questions.

How can they have 66 Milj$ dollar in cash end JAN 2014? They reported 44 Milj$ and raised 22 Milj$ (rounded) and that is indeed 66 Milj$

Now they do burn 7-12 Milj$ per quarter so there is about 2x9 (averaged) 18 Milj$ missing here. Avid can not be the source of that cash because that would stand for an extrapolated yearly profit of 36Milj$ and a turn-over of about 72Milj$ given they Avid claims about 50% margin.

So I am wondering where that cash came from and if the ATM has been used to help mask some other income?

They must disclose every income, right? Or can be that we've misterious income? Why this difference that you note in 5 minutes? Can be a merely mistake? Or can be a trouble?
I'm confident in Bavi's future, but now I'm not very confident in PL. I really hope that we can have a really calm week end, and a really calm friday AH.

[BioBS2012]

Cloaked by my math I get the following:

Quarter ending October 31st - Cash on hand = $44.4 MM
ATM in January 2014 (net) = $27.4 MM

Total Cash = $71.7 MM

Cash on hand @ January 31, 2014 = >$63 MM

Last 4 month burn (Nov. - Jan.) = $71.7-$63 = $8.7 MM

The above burn does not include any contributions made by Avid. Edit. I don't know how Avid contributions fit in here, but all looks kosher to me.

There is however something else that troubles me and that unless an error occurred should at least raise questions.

How can they have 66 Milj$ dollar in cash end JAN 2014? They reported 44 Milj$ and raised 22 Milj$ (rounded) and that is indeed 66 Milj$

Now they do burn 7-12 Milj$ per quarter so there is about 2x9 (averaged) 18 Milj$ missing here. Avid can not be the source of that cash because that would stand for an extrapolated yearly profit of 36Milj$ and a turn-over of about 72Milj$ given they Avid claims about 50% margin.

My math above is based on info from the following

PR ; 8-k and 10-Q from Dec. 10, 2013
8-k from February 6, 2014

[BKT]

CP,

Very interesting comment about the CNN piece, it's amazing the stuff behind closed doors/ those in the know can perform on a legal/ wink illegal basis. So now that we know the volume of the last few weeks has been attributed to the company selling at the ATM, I am torn as to the reason why .

1) is it to increase our cash on hand in order to leverage our bargaining position? If so and you have all of these conferences you are attending in the next 30 to 60 days that most assume will be our coming out party, than why sell at the ATM now, why not wait and get some major stock appreciation.

2) is it to keep the price from rising to quickly, since options haven't been awarded yet? Which by the way is the most troubling thing in my mind still, with all the timing of the announcements over the past few days. Can you imagine the price really flying without the awarding of those options. I believe we get those awarded today, hopefully before the announcement of the conversion rate of preferred shares. If they are not announced before hand, than I would imagine the conversion rate would not be common shareholder friendly.

3) Are some of the results that we anticipated would have already been released not as good as anticipated and we get the cash now before hand. Hence the belief of all the upcoming conferences being a bunch of dog and pony shows?

4) Is it based upon the fact that we really have the goods, the holy grail and that there is no doubt in managements mind that we will be going for it alone. Stockpile the cash and let her rip! Full steam ahead mentality? Heck even with that mentality, makes any potential partner on the fence have to pony up in order to prevent us from taking it on our own

My head is spinning with trying to make sense out of this ATM( which has really surprised me)the timing of some things which I believe gets announced today, possible even after hours ( on a Friday afternoon). Maybe I am over analyzing , but the fact that the options weren't awarded prior to this makes me uneasy. I had actually written a post the other day prior to the preferred stock news about my concern of that, but never posted it, feeling it was a dumb question.

So where am I going with this, beats me, but I Am sure other owners have some of the same concerns and thoughts. I don't have the insight or intelligence as some of the others like you that post, so maybe you or others can make some sense of my ramble.

I do have the gonads though, and I am fully locked and loaded with way too many shares, but in for the long haul, which I hope is short, lol.

Common sense tells me that Garnick,Worsely, Gates and company are not here in a small 200 million dollar biotech company for no reason at all!!

Good luck to all today