Bob - very tough question...I think it's still a bit too early for serious buyout proposals to surface. I do think they will likely come in closer to when they receive European approval (CE Mark). Titan must continue to stay on track and deliver as promised.
Provided that they do, I can tell you that a very likely Premium would be around 90-95% of whatever the share price is at that time. (Mako got an 89% premium and sold for $30 and J&J's acquisition of Mentor cost them an approx. 92% premium) So, we do have relatively recent benchmarks to go on - Titan would most likely be a "double" IMO as anything less would/should not be justified or accepted.
I agree with you that the sooner a major swoops in, the less costly the acquisition would be BUT I don't think they would mind paying more as long as they had more (positive) info like results of cadaver testing etc.
So, with all that said, the big question that remains is what will the PPS be around that time ??? I would think that you could very well see a bid (perhaps by a Stryker or Covidien) of around $29-31 in about a year from now. My hunch is that a HIGHER bid would come in from an ISRG or J&J and my best guesstimate is that we get acquired by a J&J for around $41-43. At these levels - I think everyone is happy and you would have Titan going to the #1 ranked Medical device Co. in terms of revenue! I'm sure Titan execs will stay on as consultants and get paid handsomely, a part of most deals, which really sucks for the average common shareowner.
Hope that helps - for now, please enjoy the ride ! As I stated before, it will come down to Mgt. and their mentality of selling vs. going it alone. Alot of posters firmly believe that we could be a $100+ stock if we "go it alone" and take a 10-12% market share away from ISRG. I, too, agree with the PPS part but give it a slim chance of going down this way
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