ohhhhhh,dear.....International speculator, my old favorite miner newsletter from casey. I liked it a lot in 2009-2011. and when the collapse started happening for miners after summer 2011, Casey kept its head in the sand, denying any concept of manipulation of miners or metals.... I imagine the casey analysts are still trying to deny the manipulation idea.
but anyway, so what it sounds like is they recommended PVG all the way up to 16 dollars ....(shakes head.....) I cant go on anymore with this. ....
Did Casey team recommend that folks buy the ridiculous collapse to 3 dollars. That's all they had to do. BUY the falling knife at 3 dollars.
Now, after PVG rallied back, and good fundamentals and the vindication of drill results controversy overcome....PVG sits here at the 200 ma, in this zone ,its a very interesting and critical moment in time now for PVG.
A fair rally from 4.80 to the 200 ma , stalling or pausing here...at 6.50 and the 200ma.
Below is the 50 ma at 5.10
The support that held a bottom twice at 4.80 was a big moment.
The selling stopped there . I expected to see stronger selling take PVG down towards 4.60-4.40 area, possibly even a quick drop to test 4.30 . That didn't happen (so far) and I doubt it will now. absent a total market crash(keep your eye on the DOW/S+P)
but when you look at the PVG chart now, 2 things stand out to me.
That whole collapse down to 3 dollar zone looks so abnormal and twisted now, like a broken arm that doesn't belong on the chart.
The chart would look more right if you just took some white out and erased that whole plunge down to 3.
If I just let my eyes look at the smooth slide from lets say September, when it was sliding down, then just skip over to December where the nice smooth slide continues, and forget the ridiculous bottom at 3 now. , and just seeing the way PVG slid along the 5 dollar zone and made two tries to plunge that Both held firm at 4.80....It wouldn't be too wrong to call 4.80 the real bottom.
so what we had from there was the rally to 6.50. (So Far...)
There is a big zone ,like a range, now between 4.80 and 6 .20, between the 50 ma at 5.10 and the 200 ma at 6.40
you could pick your support/resistance points that look like targets, . They are all in play still.
I might watch spot gold for a guideline, if the miners will follow a correlation.
I like very few miners now. Happy to put most of the money into PVG , but not here at the current top, and I personally never buy topside breakouts. There is still big resistance overhead for PVG at 7 , /7.20/ 7.40 and even worse at 8 dollars.
There's still a lot of work for all miners climbing the long mountain . and the big resistance trend zone channel , that all charts show, from the 2013 collapse, is right where most miners have entered now . I would stay cautious about PVG and all other miners now.
The technical rally of PVG from 4.80 to 6.50 , would offer a fibonnacci pullback to the zone around 5.50-5.90.
the key 20ma is at 5.50 now.
There are a few more technical indcators that make me think this rally wave for PVG , as it sits now at the 200ma, taking a pause, it might be a subwave 4, waiting to make one more pop to higher targets , becomes the subwave 5 to complete the current rally....AND Because these indicators are meaningful, I might forecast a guess, that we could see a very small dip only right now, maybe to retest 6.20- / 6.00 /5.85 and the next subwave rallies to target 6.70-7 area.
IF this happens
the targets above are just overhead,
the weekly 50 ma is at 6.70
and a zone of resistance at 7 is strong enough to stop this first rally wave off the December bottom, that might be tired now.
Such a pop to 6.70 -7 area would complete the 5 wave series....and then the pullback would be welcome from there.
Plus a larger rally like this would also fulfill the RSI in the weekly chart, presently at 53, needs to go a bit higher to become 'overbought'. That's why I would expect PVG rally very tired at 7 dollars from here. dangerous to chase it from here. I will wait now for the pullback,.
The technical charts for miners, destroyed in 2013, is just getting off the floor in this first rally wave from December. BUT in this tricky game, where the market pumpers and manipulators might be able to stir up a lot of foaming bullish sentiment, sparked by the hidden hands of trading mechanisms that know how to sucker in sheeple longs so they can fleece them later when theyre ready to slam miners back down..... Maybe we might see this bullish fever get pumped up, and miners will rally to higher target zones,. That would take PVG to 8 dollars where the sheep might get sheared there. all the miner charts show the bigger resistance zones.
and IF such a phony rally extends like that soon.... The gaming powers MUST make their whipsaw short attack there or else risk losing control of the game.
So technically, whenever PVG returns to 8 dollars, I will have to consider trimming some there, as a cost basis management strategy, its what I need to do. you might not have to but I do.
when a rally gets tired and stops, the pullback will happen.
The other possible scenario is that PVG current rally could be finished now , the first rally wave, at the 200 ma...and if the pullback is a normal one, target down to the Fib zone, 5.40-5.85 is a target area, And the 50 ma around 5.10-5.20 is in play.
The larger wave top of 6.80 area as a completion top, would have a pullback zone a bit higher, like 5.60-/5.80 / 6.00
Either of these scenarios could play out.... a further pop to target 6.80 area and then a pullback to 5.80 area.
or
a pullback now, to target 5.55-5.40 area,possibly lower bargain bottom zones near the 50 ma.
this is what I see in the PVG chart.
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