The issue that I am interested in is what is going to hit revenue in 2014. And so far I haven't seen any ARM shop that has any 20nm products on their roadmap for 2014.
products in 2014?....don't know but from the CC.......claimed 10% of 2014 revenue ($2.2B) will be 20nm.......said Q4 will have 20+% of revenue at 20nm......said Q4 would be ABOVE seasonal BECAUSE of 20nm......so that's perhaps $1.1B out of the $2.2B in Q4........at $6.5K per wafer.....that's 338,000W at 20nm for the year......over 169,000 in Q4......or about 170M 100mm^2 chips at 20 nm in 2014...... about 85M in Q4.
There's MORE. They said they will devote 60K W/M capacity at 20nm and 16K W/M 16nm wafers for 2014...That's 180,000 W/Q......seems reasonable compared to guess of 166,000W at 20nm produced in Q4.
The only good news for Intel investors is its half in Q4.......don't know who will announce a product first but with 85M by end of Q3......somebody should.
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