"Seeing how they have already started risk production I believe they're quite happy about 16nm volume in 2015. Samsung seem to be too though they say even less."
[You missed the point entirely. The point was about the economics at the next two nodes. Even when they arrive (and this "risk production" means nothing), they economics on each node will be significantly flawed and instead of costs going down, they will stay flat or even go up. This will be the first time this has happened and it's a disaster.]
"10nm certainly is rather more problematic, I can't see them doing risk production till 2016 so that would mean volume in 2017 at best for them. You never can really tell what is happening inside companies about things like this though that far ahead."
[I see no reason to be concerned with ARM's 10nm node. It will all be over but the crying and shouting by then.]
"As to the whole fab business collapsing like you seem to think - I really don't see that happening. The most that will happen is there will be a couple more mergers and the prices will go up a bit but not so much as to cause any major problems. The thing I see being talked about more is how locked in are the SoC vendors to a particular fab, should they be more locked in to get better performance or less so as that means they can move around easier."
[A couple more mergers? Are you serious? There are only two players at the top level - Samsung and TSMC. If they merge (it'll never happen) then ARM shops would have NO choice in manufacturing. And you suggest that prices will go up a bit. Once again the problem is the prices going up. It's all about the economics. ARM's fabrication economics is a problem that can't be solved.]
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