Replies to post #823 on Alterras Systems Inc (fka ASIUQ)

[Barunuuk]

Predicting Rain

Okay, so here are some more predictions (some that have begun to realize and others not yet). And by predicting them, one can make alot of money (or lose).

Predicting that Netflix will become the full cable providerp; stock is already up from its low last year of $50 up above $300. Netflix has more customers than any cable provider (i.e. Comcast, Charter, etc....). Netflix produces its own shows. Just a matter of time before no more cable providers and all shows are video streamed.

Predicting that MSFT will be in similar position to BBRY; 4% share of smart phones, <5% of tablet market share. When Smart Phones (and Tablets as the stepping stone) become what we commonly call a PC, MSFT will no longer have a monopoly on oeprating, let alone strong market share. They are in a rush to develop new products and revenue streams; they even developed their own tablet to run their software, bought Nokia, etc...

I could go on, but here is the thing. By predicting rain, you build an ark. And what is investing without predicting? You are buying an investment, because you believe it will do well.

Done.

[terry hallinan]

Morning, upshegrows.

this isn't my advice. It's Buffett's.

Warren is a wonderful investor. No one has ever made more money investing. He gives great advice though some is contradictory such as always make a profit and never be upset about a stock falling.

But Buffett somehow makes his money investing in tired old cash cows, an astonishing feat but certainly not stocks like ASIUF.

How about some advice from guys that beat Buffett like a drum?

ARD (American Research & Development) believed that if they made money from more than one investment in ten they were being too conservative.

That hare-brained investing philosophy led them to the greatest success ever achieved by a venture capital firm.

http://pelosophy.com/2013/04/12/american-research-and-development-corporation-the-first-venture-capital-firm/

As far as I recall, ARD did not invest in stocks like Alterrus with its enormous debt hangover but chose rather startups that obviously have their own risk. Its most famous investment and by far its most profitable was $40K to Ron Olsen for his idea to challenge the once indomitable Armonk Monster, IBM. At the time IBM had trashed all competition and even burned General Electric some awful bad when GE tried to get into the computer business.

How can Alterrus deal with its enormous debt and yet grow?

IMHO Alterrus will have to find a way to negotiate a settlement. Creditors will surely have to take a hit but a live company is better than a dead one. Even a banker should know that if they don't have the full faith and credit of the U.S. Treasury backing them after having bought the entire government with their own funny money. Pennies on the dollar is better than nothing at all.

I could go on with ideas but I have never had to do step one and can only admire with awe those who have. I once had a few miserable shares of ARD because I was enchanted with what they were doing. Never did I have the faintest notion I could do the same.

Best, Terry