These are excellent charts. Can you put up a 3 year chart of the weekly? I'd be interested to see the pattern. I would also say that your comment about the neg D is correct.
Look at the January COMPX pattern with the gap down. Looks like a similar set up now. If we sell off hard the next two days it looks like your indicators would bottom and we should have a nice tradeable bounce. Oddly, the NDX looks weaker than the COMPX.