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Strategyone

02/01/06 2:54 PM

#19995 RE: RUBY1100 #19994

By the action of ERHE today (over 2.5 million shares traded with just over 1 hour to go and up 12+%), it looks like the "strengthening relations" talk ended on a positive note.

I would think the only way to strengthen the relationship is to get the JDZ ball rolling again.

This quiet upsurge in price on considerable volume also tells me someone knows something on the other side of the pond. This looks very similar to some of ERHE history right before news hits. We shall have to wait and see.

GLTA,

Strategyone
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Homeport

02/01/06 4:04 PM

#20006 RE: RUBY1100 #19994

That was a great find by Rambus, Ruby. And as to what it means, it's somewhat ambiguous but substantially straightforward.

The Obasanjo-Menezes talks centered on "strengthening relations," which in my opinion can only mean forward movement on the PSCs. The JDZ is the crux of the bilateral relationship.

"The disagreement" could just as easily have been in the plural, including at least:
- ...over AG Pereira´s Awards Probe;
- ...over inclusion of Addax in B-4; and
- ...over timely JMC meet and signing of PSCs.

Looks like clarification will surface early next week, and I'm as upbeat as most posters here!

Long ERHC, even longer STP,
Homeport
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Art2004

02/01/06 6:50 PM

#20018 RE: RUBY1100 #19994

Ruby, my thoughts are that the second half of the article was background or filler added by the author to increase the length of the article and was not part of the press release from Abuja.

Here's a guess on the PSC's based on quotes I have read from Menezes.

Blocks 2,3 and 4 signed. Blocks 5 and 6 held over because 1) 3-D seismic not completed. 2) If good oil is discovered in blocks 2.3 and/or 4 signature bonuses on 5 and 6 could be a lot highher.

3)That way Menezes could also save face on having one of his requests honored.

However, either way it would not make a big difference to me.