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Zephyr

12/17/13 9:12 AM

#623853 RE: Zephyr #623852

Consumer Price Index
Released On 12/17/2013 8:30:00 AM For Nov, 2013
Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual
CPI - M/M change -0.1 % 0.0 % 0.0 % to 0.1 % 0.0 %
CPI - Y/Y change 0.9 % 1.2 %
CPI less food & energy 0.1 % 0.1 % 0.1 % to 0.2 % 0.2 %
CPI less food & energy - Y/Y change 1.7 % 1.7 %
Highlights
Consumer price inflation remains soft just ahead of the Fed's policy decision tomorrow. Headline CPI inflation in November posted a flat reading after dipping 0.1 percent in October. The CPI excluding food and energy firmed to 0.2 percent, following a rise of 0.1 percent the prior month.

The energy component pulled down on overall inflation as energy slipped 1.0 percent, following a drop of 1.7 percent in October. Gasoline declined 1.6 percent after falling 2.9 percent the month before. Food price inflation was 0.1 percent in November, matching the pace in October.

Within the core, increases in the indexes for shelter and airline fares accounted for most of the increase, with the indexes for recreation and for used cars and trucks also rising. The indexes for apparel, for household furnishings and operations, and for new vehicles all declined in November.

Year-on-year, overall CPI inflation posted at 1.2 percent, up from 0.9 percent in October (seasonally adjusted). The core rate came in at 1.7 percent, equaling the pace in October. On an unadjusted year-ago basis, the headline CPI in November was up 1.2 percent and the core was up 1.7 percent.

Overall, inflation is subdued and the doves at the Fed will be arguing that inflation is too low and that QE should not be tapered yet.