Replies to post #15319 on Mostly: Classical

[roni]

Central Banks and demand factors

I have a sense that when some think of Central Banks they are thinking primarily of the parties to the Washington agreement limiting the sale of gold by the signatories. I tend to think more broadly, trying to make guesses about net governmental demand for gold. This brings me to this question:

Will OPEC countries, China, Russia, and other non-signatory nation demand soak up the sales by signatories? To what extent do those purchases constitute new demand for 2006?

From there I tend to move to other demand factors.

The other big demand question revolve around purchases of gold by the various gold ETFs. Making it easier for a common bloke like me to invest in physical gold (or as some argue, to have only the illusion of doing so), has been a positive on demand for physical gold. Will there be net inflow or outgo here in 2006?

Another significant area that one does not read as much on as we did back in 2002-2004 is producer de-hedging. What impact will that have in 2006?

I don't have any disbelief that Washington agreement Central Banks will sell more goldd this year. I don't have any problem believing they will sell all of their quota under the agreement. I am not so sure a case for investing in physical gold or the shares of miners should rest on such a belief.

[basserdan]

*** CB Gold Sales ***


Gold sales

Posted: Mon, 30 Jan 2006
[miningmx.com] -- THE world's central banks were unlikely to meet the 5-year 2,500 ton quota of gold sales, according to a report by HSBC which was quoted by The Business Online.

HSBC analyst Alan Williamson said total confirmed and probable sales under the renewed Washington Agreement, a moratorium on official sector gold sales, currently stood at 1,441 tons.

Of these sales, 599 tons has already taken place and a further 842 tons are expected to take place over the balance of the agreement, Williamson was quoted to have said in The Business Online report.

"Within this category we have included the 130 tons of Swiss sales, which completes the longstanding disposal program, the 600 tons of likely French sales (151 tons already completed) and the Dutch sale of 165 tons (75 tons already)," Williamson said.

"In addition, we have included likely Portuguese sales of 160 tons (of which 65 tons has been completed), Austrian sales of 90 tons (of which 15 tons done already) and probable Swedish sales of 60 tons (17 tons done)," he said.

European Central Bank sales of 47 tons undertaken so far and the 6 tons of gold sold by the Bundesbank for coin minting were also included in Williamson's figures.

Also, Belgium has likely sales of 120 tons (of which 30 tons have been completed), and Spain has sold 63 tons, The Business Online said in its report.

"These sales total 1,441 tons, or just over half of the potential sales under the agreement," Williamson said.

In addition to these sales, there is a potential 876 tons of central bank disposals that can be identified, he said.

"Within this we would include a further 594 tons of German sales if the Bundesbank were to take up its full 600 tons allocation - although it passed on the possibility of sales in the first year of the revised agreement and has not yet stated its intentions," he said.

"In addition, we have included a further 220 tons of possible ECB sales, which is approximately what would need to be sold to reduce its holdings to 15% of total reserves, and a possible 62 tons of Belgian sales."

But even in the "unlikely event" all these sales materialize,Williamson said total sales under the renewed Central Bank Gold Agreement would be just over 2,300 tons, still almost 200 tons short of the maximum permissible.

http://www.miningmx.com/wts/867476.htm