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Replies to #22650 on Biotech Values

DewDiligence

01/25/06 12:07 PM

#22661 RE: spartex #22650

Re: Business Week article on IMCL

>“It's been a long, strange trip for ImClone Systems”<

Business Week author, Catherine Arnst, reads the message boards, evidently. The above quote from today’s Business Week article is a verbatim copy of one of Biowatch’s posts on the Yahoo IMCL board yesterday. Coincidence?

>biotech giant Amgen has a rival drug, Panitumumab, that is widely expected to win FDA approval in 2006. If and when it does, Erbitux sales are likely to slow.<

If slow means grow at a slower rate, I would agree with that. However, I think Erbitux sales will continue to grow after Panitumumab’s launch because the indication for which Panitumumab will be approved represents only 6% of Erbitux’s current sales. Sure, Pani will get some off-label use, but I don’t think Pani will get widespread off-label use without reimbursement, and I don’t think it will get reimbursement for off-label use without at least some clinical data to justify such use.

>The maker of cancer drug Erbitux appears to be sparking little interest with potential buyers<

The process is just beginning—let’s give it a chance. I do not subscribe to the notion that hiring an investment banker to shop the company means that a deal cannot be struck.