Replies to post #76286 on NanoViricides Inc. (NNVC)

[Ubertino]

What about the animal tests - 5000 of them - any red flags there?

Money - they don't need any.

Novartis wants EKC-Cide - take a hike!

We will supply the market.

[Puffer]

why has big pharma not already stepped in and provided funding?

A deal in the preclinical stage would have to be priced with a much higher risk premium and if the treatment should ultimately prove successful in humans would leave billions on the table. Docs Seymour and Diwan are not interested. As a shareholder, neither am I. As most big pharma deals are struck after Phase II clinical this is by no means a warning flag.

Also I still have doubts about efficacy in humans until the first tests are successful.

The fact that the mode of action works in the blood and requires no alteration of cell function, raises the odds of transferability to humans to a much higher level than the typical drug.

Nature has a way of adapting and it is an unknown how we and the virus targets will respond.

If a virus should adapt away from the cide receptor mimic, it would lose its ability to attach to the host receptors as well and thereby lose its ability to infect.

[ZincFinger]

Your conclusion that BP not having tried to buy out NNVC AT THIS STATE (hasn't even STARTED the data gathering toxicology study)shows a total lack of awareness of how Big Pharma behaves despite your contention otherwise.

BP is, as you say, risk averse. Precisely because of that, they do not buy out early stage drugs and usually buy in Phase III, occasionally in Phase II. They are just as lousy at picking winners early on as they are at creating new concept drugs.

I have never heard of a BP buying out as soon as after IND approval (not even as soon as Phase I although that is at least conceivable), much less before data gathering part of toxicology is even begun.

Your suggestion that BP not buying at this point is a red flag is "so bad it is not even wrong" as Pauli would say.

[Echo20]

ghillaman

Some Pharmas are waiting for the successful completion of Phase One on FLUCIDE.

That is more important with a new medicine platform.

NNVC should see some action after Phase One on FLUCIDE.

Echo20

[robi-1-kenobi]

I like your question, because I have been thinking about the same thing. I can run through my own thought process for you. Others may have some alternative takes on it.

So, antiviral nanoviricides are showing great early promise and the potential markets (plural) are absolutely huge.

Why wouldn't Big Pharma just swoop in - even now before pre-clinical Tox is done?

It is easy to think there must be some underlying risk not uncovered by the due diligence of those here on this message board and others touting NNVC.

Other folks here have covered the risk aversion of BP before further development flushes out any risks and sorts the wheat from the chaff. And some have described in previous posts that there have been some overtures from BP, but they didn't come close to properly valuing the probability of success and the future market value of the technology.

But in addition, Big Pharma may be having a hard time envisioning how NNVC and its technology would bolt on to their existing franchises. Most companies look for bolt-on adjacent technologies when looking for new business opportunities. This doesn't fit into the classic small molecule development as it is not a typical "drug" in terms of its chemistry or mechanism of action or ADME PK/PD. It also doesn't fit into biologics, as it is not a large molecule therapeutic protein and doesn't fit into CBER FDA regs or mechanisms of action. The viricide micelles are really a polymer chemistry that requires different resources and skills to synthesize, develop, characterize, specify, scale-up and test. Despite some work by BP on attaching PEG to therapeutic proteins, this isn't in the wheelhouse of a typical Big Pharma company and doesn't readily fit into their existing business franchises.

At the Big Pharma company, a specific executive in new business development has to stick their neck out and say:

"The future return is so great, we need to buy NNVC now. It will fit in our "X" franchise requiring the addition of "Y" resources we don't already have. And we will need to take all the pipeline products through all stages of development as that's not done yet. But -oh, by the way - the executives of NNVC understand its value and we will have to pay as if clinical testing is already complete - not just for FluCide, but also prorated for most of the other drugs in their pipeline."

That doesn't mean there isn't someone like that in Big Pharma who can see the promise and has the clout to buy it before it becomes even more expensive. But that would take some serious guts and power - at the risk of naysayers crying they overpaid. That kind of clout and power is usually set for base compensation with disincentives to bet big - even with a huge reward opportunity for the risk.