>Do you still think a $50/+ take-offer price is in the cards or would IMCL be willing to sell for mid to upper $40's?<
It depends in large part on how confident management is in the four key trials (three in colorectal cancer and one in pancreatic cancer) that will report data this year (#msg-9218093).
The average buyout premium in biotech during the past five years has been 38%, so this is a helpful yardstick to keep in mind when assessing the likelihood of various buyout prices.
>What is your probability that an announcement is made in the first half of the year?<
85% chance for a decision during 1H06, IMO, but not all of this probability is for a buyout. IMCL could instead decide to acquire a company itself or to reacquire the Erbitux rights from BMY.
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