.. how terrible and ominous .. i was surprised in reading this ..
by Becky Oskin, OurAmazingPlanet Staff Writer | October 15, 2013 07:28pm ET
[Pin It] From left to right, storms Phailin, Nari and Wipha menace Asia. Credit: NASA
The West Pacific took a double-whammy this weekend, and another storm is on the way. First Super-cyclone Phailin flooded India, then Typhoon Nari hit Vietnam. Now, 1,200 miles (2,000 kilometers) to the northwest, Typhoon Wipha is pummeling Japan.
The line of storms hit near the peak of the storm season in the West Pacific, so their grouping is not especially rare, weather experts say. Despite the sudden uptick in storms, the Pacific tropical storm season .. http://www.livescience.com/topics/hurricanes/ .. is actually still trending below normal. In the West Pacific, accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is at 72 percent of average for this date, according to climate modeler Ryan Maue, who runs the forecasting site WeatherBELL .. http://models.weatherbell.com/tropical.php . ACE is a measure used by climate modelers to account for the number, strength and duration of both individual tropical cyclones and all tropical cyclones for an entire season. (Tropical cyclone is the broad term used for cyclones, typhoons and hurricanes.)
The East Pacific is even quieter, at 45 percent of average, and the Atlantic is at 30 percent. The ACE is gauged against tropical cyclones between 1981 and 2010.
Though the overall Pacific storm activity is below average, the super-storms stand out because the Atlantic has seen no major hurricanes (those of Category 3 or higher) this season, despite predictions for an active season.
Weather experts aren't sure why. Dry air in the Atlantic .. http://www.livescience.com/39535-why-no-hurricanes-at-peak.html .. is wreaking havoc with budding hurricanes. But ocean and atmospheric patterns are also holding down storm activity across the Northern Hemisphere.
People in Tonga's northern islands are preparing for the arrival of the first Pacific cyclone of the summer.
Tropical Cyclone Ian, a category 4 storm, is currently 260 kilometres north west of Vava'u, moving east-south-east at about seven kilometres an hour.
Acting director of the Fiji Met Service Aminiasi Tuidraki says the slow moving cyclone is now expected to reach Vava'u on Saturday morning local time.
"It seems to be losing some intensity a little bit...if it's still losing its intensity, we might downgrade it to category 3," he said.
Ian is expected to brush below Niuafo'ou, Tonga's most northerly island, in the Niua group.
The capital, Nuku'alofa, is not directly in Ian's path but may experience heavy rains and possible flooding.
Leveni Aho is the Director of Tonga's National Emergency Management Office and says residents of the northern islands should prepare for the worst.
"The potential and the threat now lies in the islands of Vava'u and Ha'apai in the next 12 to 24 hours," he said.
"We have been in contact with our northern islands, the weather still there is pretty calm but we expect that it will escalate."
The key administrative island of Vava'u and its capital Neiafu - Tonga's second largest town - shares the same name as its group, while Lifuka island and its regional capital Pangai is the administrative centre of the Ha'apai group.
Destructive winds are likely to begin several hours before the cyclone's centre passes overhead or nearby Vava'u in the next 18-24 hours, and across Ha'apai on Friday afternoon local time.
Heavy rain, the flooding of low lying areas and very rough seas are also expected.
Mr Aho is urging affected residents to make sure they are well prepared.
"A reminder to people to make sure that they have enough supplies for the next 72 hours in terms of water, drinking water, and food and (ensure) some basic necessities like radios and mobile phones are charged to maintain communication," he said.
"Make sure that they are in a safe place, if ever the winds arrive keeping away from low lying areas and the coastal areas, make sure that they are in a safe house, sheltered."
Islands prepare
People in Tonga's Vava'u islands have begun boarding up windows in preparation for Cyclone Ian.
Kjelll Stayv owns a small hotel in Vava'u and told Pacific Beat there is an eerie feeling in the air.
"The skying is milky and grey so there is definitely something coming," he said.
He says preparations for the cyclone are underway.
"On our island and the small outer islands here, there are between 10,000 to 12,000 people," he said.
"And right now there are now many tourists, maybe 100.
"It is a little weird because we have to board up their windows, but they don't have much choice I'm afraid."
Tune in to your local emergency broadcaster for updates. Prepare your cyclone kit, make a note of the location of any item not in your kit. Prepare your home. If an official evacuation order has not been issued, you may shelter in your home until it passes. If an official evacuation order is issued then you and your family must leave your home immediately. If evacuating, seek a public shelter or shelter with friends or family further inland or on higher ground. For more details see Plan for an emergency on the Radio Australia website.
Cyclone Ian Infographic: Satellite view of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian approaching Tonga (NOAA Satellite and Information Service) Photo: Satellite view of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ian approaching Tonga (NASA: LANCE/EOSDIS MODIS Rapid Response Team) Related Story: Tonga's northern islands brace for powerful cyclone Related Story: Pacific posts record temperatures Map: Tonga
People in Tonga's northern islands are preparing for the arrival of the first Pacific cyclone of the summer.
Tropical Cyclone Ian, a category 4 storm, is currently 260 kilometres north west of Vava'u, moving east-south-east at about seven kilometres an hour.
Acting director of the Fiji Met Service Aminiasi Tuidraki says the slow moving cyclone is now expected to reach Vava'u on Saturday morning local time.
"It seems to be losing some intensity a little bit...if it's still losing its intensity, we might downgrade it to category 3," he said.
Ian is expected to brush below Niuafo'ou, Tonga's most northerly island, in the Niua group.
The capital, Nuku'alofa, is not directly in Ian's path but may experience heavy rains and possible flooding.
Leveni Aho is the Director of Tonga's National Emergency Management Office and says residents of the northern islands should prepare for the worst.
"The potential and the threat now lies in the islands of Vava'u and Ha'apai in the next 12 to 24 hours," he said.
"We have been in contact with our northern islands, the weather still there is pretty calm but we expect that it will escalate."
The key administrative island of Vava'u and its capital Neiafu - Tonga's second largest town - shares the same name as its group, while Lifuka island and its regional capital Pangai is the administrative centre of the Ha'apai group.
Destructive winds are likely to begin several hours before the cyclone's centre passes overhead or nearby Vava'u in the next 18-24 hours, and across Ha'apai on Friday afternoon local time.
Heavy rain, the flooding of low lying areas and very rough seas are also expected. Meteorological links
Fiji Meteorological Service Cyclone Ian track map Current regional warnings Tonga Meteorological Service Tropical cyclone advisory Fakamatala’ea makehe (Tongan) Tonga satellite view (NOAA) Tonga satellite movie (NOAA)
Mr Aho is urging affected residents to make sure they are well prepared.
"A reminder to people to make sure that they have enough supplies for the next 72 hours in terms of water, drinking water, and food and (ensure) some basic necessities like radios and mobile phones are charged to maintain communication," he said.
"Make sure that they are in a safe place, if ever the winds arrive keeping away from low lying areas and the coastal areas, make sure that they are in a safe house, sheltered." Islands prepare
People in Tonga's Vava'u islands have begun boarding up windows in preparation for Cyclone Ian.
Kjelll Stayv owns a small hotel in Vava'u and told Pacific Beat there is an eerie feeling in the air.
"The skying is milky and grey so there is definitely something coming," he said.
He says preparations for the cyclone are underway.
"On our island and the small outer islands here, there are between 10,000 to 12,000 people," he said.
"And right now there are now many tourists, maybe 100.
"It is a little weird because we have to board up their windows, but they don't have much choice I'm afraid." The view of Tonga's Vava'u from Mt Talau Photo: Port of Refuge harbour in the town of Neiafu on Vava?u, Tonga. (Wikipedia Commons: Tau'olunga)
Preparing for a cyclone
Tune in to your local emergency broadcaster for updates. Prepare your cyclone kit, make a note of the location of any item not in your kit. Prepare your home. If an official evacuation order has not been issued, you may shelter in your home until it passes. If an official evacuation order is issued then you and your family must leave your home immediately. If evacuating, seek a public shelter or shelter with friends or family further inland or on higher ground. For more details see Plan for an emergency on the Radio Australia website.
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