A post I just made on Yahoo addressing Koufax's
(a great poster and very smart guy) but who said
ATRS should not get to $10 any time soon - I think
he is wrong - here's why:----------
Koufax:
One point of yours with which I strongly disagree is your absolute
"NO" comment on the stock going to $10 anytime soon.
We were pretty steadily trading in the high $4 before Otrexup
approval and the approval did a great many good things for ATRS.
Validation of management and their business plan. Retention of all
income generated from "in house" products rather than a small royalty
percentage from partners. Control. A higher P /E awarded by the market.
I see very little value for Otrexup (and the strong probability of a
licensing agreement for Otrexup for psoriasis and a ROW license for RA)
in the stock at today's price and about even far less for QST & Epi-Pen
and none for QSM. Maybe less than none for the hope of future partnerships
with TEVA (and I think with TEVA being in disarray they may need to lean
more on partners to manage existing projects and spearhead new ones)-
and others.
It seems the stock market (up to now) will not give ATRS a premium (or even
a fair price) for what should / will happen in the near, mid and longer term
future -
They must continue to prove themselves. I think the Otrexup launch will
go very well and that will be all the proof the market should need to factor
in future income and discount it back to present value and award a P/E to
that income stream and that will be your share price.
AND that could easily be $10.
We see high risk company's (with single products that could become very
large revenue producers) but with a very large current burn, the need for
many secondary offerings - and a high risk of clinical or FDA failure with
market caps in the hundreds of millions (or a billion) dollars-
I think with the cumulative opportunities available to ANTARES we have
an equal, or better, future going forward than many of these very high
market cap stocks and I think we will and should have a market cap much
higher than ours is today.
Finally if we remained a licensing company - and did not direct our focus
on "in house" products - we might now have a great many more partnerships
and be attracting more attention - but as a Licensing company collecting
royalty and having no control of news or marketing, etc. it would take a
very long time to earn a market cap several times what ours is today -
But we are a NEW ANTARES - with existing (and I am sure new) licensing
opportunities available to us - BUT we are no longer the mundane licensing
company - we are a Specialty Pharmaceutical; Company - and that deserves
attention and a much higher share price; And we will get it - in 2014....
and the rise (turnaround of our stock) might well begin with the conference
call.....
GOOD LUCK
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