Replies to post #5168 on Navidea Biopharmaceuticals Inc (NAVB)

[Cave In Temptor]

Seems like that by pulling our heads together we got the best of it!!!!

You are correct about the BS, only rf is variable. I miss-read.
Assuming 1.40%, BS is fixed at 2.423.

If I may, the exchange ratio for the warrants is variable depending on the SP (and not fixed):
n = BS / closing bid price 2 days prior to such exchange (but PPS no less than 2.00).

With 10.563 common and 3.169 warrants:
If SP=3.83 then n=0.63 common/warrant; new shares=2.01 M; tot shares= 12.57 and Crede PPS=2.39
If SP=2.10 then n=1.15 common/warrant; new shares=3.66 M; tot shares=14.22 and Crede PPS=2.11
If SP=2.00 then n=1.21 common/warrant; new shares=3.84 M; tot shares=14.40 and Crede PPS=2.08
If SP=1.00 then n=1.21 common/warrant; new shares=3.84 M; tot shares=14.40 and Crede PPS=2.08

So, Crede has a PPS sweet spot between 2.10 and 3.83 in which they would make money despite a stock price lower than their 2.84 PPS initial investment.
Still, this does not change the fact that any exchange is not possible before 6 months from issuance, i.e. Mar 24, 2014 !
I agree there is an hanging risk of warrant exchange if SP <= 3.83 between Mar 2014 and Sep 2016. Still, there is the possibility of a mandatory exercise if PPS is 25% above strike price (i.e. 4.79) for a period of 20 of 30 consecutive days to suppress it.

Anyway, as I said in my last post (5169), if we place ourselves in mid-sept, the time this was negotiated and with PPS in the 2.90s, I can imagine management seeing 3.83 as a very reachable PPS within 6 months, with LS EU and US milestones expected in late 2013, not counting pipeline developments thanks to the new cash.

In my eyes, the upcoming q3 results (early Nov) and analyst day (Dec 05) will be of tremendous importance.
There should be enough positive news between US and EU to get PPS past the 3.83 mark by late Mar 2014.
Time will tell, as we always say with great foresight :-)