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[Zephyr]

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Released On 10/24/2013 9:45:00 AM For wk10/20, 2013
Prior Actual
Level -34.1 -36.1
Highlights
Consumer confidence extended a month-long retreat this week, with post-shutdown ratings of the national economy their weakest in a year and the overall Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index is at its lowest in nearly nine months. But its rate of decline slowed from last week's steep drop.

After falling by 4.4 points last week-a one-week loss matched or exceeded just 39 times in 27 years-the CCI shed less than half that, 2.0 points, this week. It is down a total of 8.0 points since just before the government shutdown started, to minus 36.1 on its scale of minus 100 to plus 100.

There were similar patterns around previous government shutdowns. The CCI lost 5 points in a single week after the first of the two government shutdowns in 1995-6, and then dropped again, by 8 points, during and after the second shutdown.

It then resumed what had been a growth phase-a hopeful sign if history repeats itself. But that is not a sure bet. Consumer sentiment was in far better shape in 1995-6, with the CCI at minus 14 going into those shutdowns, and the economy was growing at a much faster clip.

The CCI reached a more than five-year high in early August but has struggled since, its losses exacerbated by the shutdown. It is now 19.8 points from its long-term average, minus 16.3, after coming within 7.2 points of its average Aug. 4. At a minimum the road to full recovery has gotten longer.

Ratings of the national economy-the one sub-index based more on perception than experience-remains the weakest by far, and has taken the greatest hit. At minus 68.2, the CCI's economy sub-index is its worst since October 2012, down 15.7 points in the last month and 23.1 points in 11 weeks.

That is a substantial turn for the worse: Like the CCI overall, ratings of the national economy had reached their best since early 2008 in August. The economy sub-index is now a steep 37.0 points from its long-term average since late 1985, widening from a 14.1-point gap Aug. 4.

The buying climate (minus 38.3) and personal finances (minus 2.0) sub-indices, while better, also have suffered recently, now at their lowest since early September and early April, respectively. They are 9.9 and 12.7 points from their long-term averages.

Among groups, the CCI stands at plus 13.8 among Americans with annual household incomes of $100,000 or more, its lowest since mid-minus September but the only positive score in any group. It drops to minus 22.3 among those in the $50,000-$100,000 bracket and to minus 56.5 among those making less than $50,000.