Jay and others, here are a few things we know.
1) The drop below the 2 month base (36 cents) started exactly once the quiet period started. The short position is still extremely high and they know the company can't release any news other than the date of the earnings. My take is that they took advantage of a rumor that the CMO left to drop it below 33 cents and see the stops being taken out.
2) The CMO leaving was just a rumor. He still shows as employed with Velti in LinkedIn and twitter,a week after the rumor. There is no SEC filing regarding the same either. VELT is very prompt with filings.
3) Alex Moukas, with all his past shortcomings, still only accepts stock as payment for his CEO services. He had 4 million shares in Feb and I reckon that is over 5 million shares right now. It is in his best interest to see the company recover quickly from this transition period.
4) BK is not possible with the current cash position, current AS, cash burn situation, support of the only creditor (HSBC) and the CRO hired to increase new sales (with 100-200 DSO days). And they are still signing up new customers in 2Q (read transcript). The short fall was mainly due to the Mobclix business "shut down" caused by the non-payment to the developers. The Mobclix sale, even if only for a few million bucks, will add to the cash position of 25 cents/share (assuming $3M burn from Jul-Sep).
5) Earnings estimates have been reduced 50% from -13 cents to -20 cents since Aug 21. But the same analysts still expect 36% growth over the next 5 years from this new baseline.
Anyway, if Ross and Baker are worth their salt, this will be $1.50 by mid 2014, regardless of whether it is 20 or 40 cents right now.
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