Thanks for sharing the Monte Carlo analysis. Did you subtract or add the $40MM in NOLs to the settlement/trial proceeds? A lot of people keep viewing those as negative, but I think they are carry forward losses that can be used as write offs on taxes.
Lol monte carlo analysis. Monte carlo analysis can be summed up by drawing a box on a piece of paper and placing dots all around the paper and counting how many landed within the box.
Anyway, you never factored in the risk of a loss in the trial but you did factor in 40 million of NOL which isn't liabilities. The company only has 5mil in liabilities from what I see.
Interesting analysis. When I managed litigation at a large corporation, I used a decision tree analysis to determine what settlement authority I would provide to settle a particular lawsuit against us. The Monte Carlo method appears to be a decision tree on testosterone and steroids. What would your result be if you revised the probability of ATVI winning the msj to 50% instead of 25%?
Many thanks for your efforts!
Someone please wake me up when the video is published...
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