Possibly, but I honestly don't know much about the plants that are sitting idle. Do you have any sources I can review? There could be other mitigating factors that could be the cause of some plants not in production such as sustainability of source fiber, proximity to deep water ports or railway capacity, etc. Let's not forget that Drax is building two pellet plants and must have a reason if there are a number of them sitting idle that they could buy.
I admit, my confidence has waned in the last few weeks that things will be moving forward. The company has made financial commitments at the Natchitoches Parish Port, but unless they signed at the last minute, their lease option expired at the Port of Baton Rouge. As of about a month ago, it didn't appear that any permits had been obtained and I still haven't seen any plans submitted to the Louisiana State Fire Marshall for building permits (unless they were bundled with Drax plans).
On the bright side, it appears that a large investment bank has taken up interest in the company. The Drax presentations also mention a "Gulf Cluster", "Assessing opportunity for expanding manufacturing capacity in region", "Scale improves economics for region and port facility", and "Opportunity to purchase pellets on a delivered basis". This sounds like BMSPF with their facility next to Drax in Baton Rouge. Also looking at the forestry map in their presentation and their proximity to their Plum Creek fiber sources, the positions of their Morehouse and Amite sites are leaving a huge swath of untapped fiber sources west of those projects along the Red River. Sources that BMSPF is positioned for to build a plant that is over twice as large as the two being built by Drax.
Anyway, I don't know what to think. I swing from selling my position at these pennies on the dollar to holding on until news comes out that clarifies what is happening. The one thing I do know is I'm done buying more.
Phillip
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