RRdog, respectfully the assertion in your example, while the math is accurate, assumes that the value offered before and after dilution is the same. Running the risk of answering for CP and Bungler, I believe they are inferring that the funds collected by the ATM are being used to increase the final value. So in your example prior to ATM usage $2b/156mm shares = $12.82, rather than lets say $1b/100mm shares a year ago = $10/share. Of course this is a made up example.
Unfortunately none of us can know 100% for sure if the intrinsic value of a final deal is greater than the dilution. Objectively speaking, one could infer that as the risks are removed the price to partner increases exponentially higher than the cost of removing the risks. Such as eliminating going concern and FDA PHIII approval. In this sense I agree with CP and Bungler that our price to partner greatly surpasses the additional dilution. The same can be said by doing PHIII alone, IF we get final approval.
With all that said I absolutely agree that we should have pursued a partner for Cotara to help offset some of the costs in bringing it to PHIII. The excuse of it being a niche product is completely unacceptable since we have known this from the beginning. Who cares if we have to do a "less-than-stellar" deal for Cotara...just get it done. The focus is, and has been, on getting 2nd line lung to market. That will bring us the big $$ from a partner.
I also agree we could be leveraging Avid for a loan or LOC. It was reassuring to hear during the last CC an analyst asked the question if management would consider it. The answer was yes, they are/would consider using Avid to secure financing.