Replies to post #167857 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

ARIA (re Plavix usage)—Its unclear what the mechanism of thrombosis using iclusig right now. It is possible that 11% of subpopulation with certain genetic background will develop thrombosis on iclusig with 100% chance while 89% will have 0% thrombosis issue.

Possible but not very likely, IMO.

Plavix will certainly decrease thrombosis in that 11% but the other 89% will have increased bleeding risk.

In your hypothetical scenario, Plavix would makes things worse, of course; however, in most realistic scenarios, Plavix would likely provide a net benefit, IMO.