Replies to post #613704 on *SCALPSWINGSTRADDLE* ($$$)

[Zephyr]

Jobless Claims
Released On 10/3/2013 8:30:00 AM For wk9/28, 2013
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
New Claims - Level 305 K 307 K 313 K 300 K to 323 K 308 K
4-week Moving Average - Level 308.00 K 308.75 K 305.00 K
New Claims - Change -5 K -4 K 1 K
Highlights
Layoffs were at or near their lowest point of the recovery going into the government shutdown. Initial claims were little changed in the September 28 week, up only 1,000 to 308,000 with the prior week revised very slightly higher, up 2,000 to 307,000. These are the second and third lowest levels of the recovery. The 4-week average is at a new recovery low, at 305,000 for a fifth straight decline. The average is trending more than 20,000 below the month-ago comparison which is a convincing signal of month-to-month improvement in labor conditions.

Continuing claims are also trending lower though there was a 104,000 jump to 2.925 million in the latest available data which are for the September 21 week. The Labor Department is noting that the jump reflects a catch-up in back-dated claims out of California where counting was interrupted last month by a computer changeover. But the 4-week average for continuing claims is down 5,000 to a new recovery low of 2.837 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers, however, is moving higher, at 2.3 percent for a 1 tenth gain from the prior week and a 2 tenth gain from the week before that which was the recovery low.

A factor skewing future reports will be furloughed government workers with federal employees not counted in the headline numbers unlike contractors many of whom will be. Today's report would have been a positive for the jobs outlook were it not for the ongoing government shutdown and the risks it poses to the labor market.
Market Consensus before announcement
Initial jobless claims fell 5,000 in the September 21 week to a much lower-than-expected total of 305,000. The Econoday consensus was for 330,000 with the low-end forecast at 315,000. Despite two weeks of uncertainty over counting issues in California and Nevada, revisions have been very narrow with the prior week revised only 1,000 higher to 310,000. The average was down for a 4th week in row, 7,000 lower in the latest week to 308,000 which is a new recovery low and more than 20,000 below levels in late August.