Replies to post #48802 on Apple Inc (AAPL)

[Bootz]

Ron, what can we expect for earnings, given that the numbers have already been announced?

I suppose we could hear something like:

1) Sales of the new Intel iMacs have exceeded our expectations.

2) Pre orders of the new MacBook Pro have exceeded our expectations.

Or not, whatever. Maybe some name drops about new video content for iTunes.

But what else that might dramatically bump or depress?

I do think that shareholders ought to start taking the Apple Corps lawsuit a little more seriously than they have to date here.

Not because of the ultimate outcome -- obviously if our Apple loses they'll appeal -- but of the effect an original negative ruling might have on the share price.

Can you imagine waking up some morning in late March to the headline:

"British Judge Says Apple Must Divest iPod Division"

Wouldn't matter how the suit would ultimately play out; the market would simply interpret it as a devastating blow to Apple's music business -- which is widely perceived as the company's growth driver.

To say there would be a catastrophic drop in AAPL share price would be an understatement.

Conversely, a headline to the effect that "British Judge Dismisses Beatles' Suit" would probably signal a buying frenzy.

I have no idea which of these two scenarios will play out.

All I can say is:

Beware the Ides of March!

Or actually the second half of March.

And yes, the iMac G5 I'm typing this on is indeed a wonderful machine. Both of 'em.

[PaperProfit1]

Hei Roni, how about Petrobras and Rio Doce? eom

[ljk]

I made a mistake, too. I sold calls on half the morning before the Keynote started, but then I bought back half those for a small loss. So I'm holding 1/4 short and 3/4 long, which is certainly eating into those AAPL profits. But I have BRCM and OVTI calls and those are helping. And yes, I'm long Pixar calls as well. On the whole I'm up between 100% and 200% this year which is a nice advance on a very bad start.

AAPL is still getting upgrades and recommendations. These usually propel a stock. Also, the stock split will be coming, and that also usually propels a stock. Could be good for 10% like last time? You could say it's all built in already but I don't think all of it is. The earnings were far better than expected. So, it's not all built in. Also, the Mactels were released far ahead of schedule and that's not built in. And there's always the next products to be announced, like maybe a real phone?

I've been sitting with my finger on the trigger because the big profits I'm holding in those 3/4 calls make me nervous, thinking I should sell to lock it in. But darn it, my head tells me there's a run to at least 100 coming.