Replies to post #166793 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

…I don't see ABBV/ENTA's 3-DAA regimen...capturing a market share of 38% [in genotype-1 all-oral regimens].

That’s what makes a market! I think ABBV/ENTA will do better than 38%, but I was aiming to be conservative.

[oc631]

I don't see ABBV/ENTA's 3-DAA regimen (4 or even 5 drugs total) capturing a market share of 38%. I'll go on record for a much lower market share. I've got no prob eating crow here if I'm wrong.

GILD will be pricing the Sofo/Riba combo next year for GT2/GT3(?) patients. Since there's no competition for oral treatment within these genotypes you can expect premium pricing. This is probably the basis for analyst predictions of $80-100K per treatment.


Looking forward to approval of the ABBV and GILD combos in GT1. How will GILD price the GT1 combo? Keep in mind this is the "more difficult to treat" genotype needing an additional DAA. If they previously priced the Sofo/Riba combo at 90K are they "anchored" within this range for the more complex combo? My point is ABBV will be in a strong position to dictate their share of the oral HCV market by strategically undercutting GILD on price. The Department of Veterans Affairs or correctional agencies won't care about pill count.


When the final GT1 data reads out it's important that GILD's combo meets or exceeds the the ABBV combo in all metrics. Insurance companies could potentially make a case for using the lower cost ABBV option on data weakness. Overall I think 38% is a pretty good guess by Dew.