Replies to post #166782 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Re: ENTA valuation

Your throughput analysis makes sense…

Coming from you—the iHub savant of HCV—I consider that a credit to the model!

Do you have a current number for warehoused HCV patients awaiting treatment?

A prerequisite would be an operational definition of warehoused, and I suspect we could have a long thread on that.

Your $30-50K U.S. price range for ABBV combo treatment strikes me as low.

Yes, I was aiming to be conservative. (I didn’t actually mention a $50K figure, but my $30K average for the US and EU combined would clearly require something close to $50K in the US.)

I've heard analysts kicking around the $80-100k figure for GILD's combo which in turn sounds too high (perhaps disregarding competition).

Agreed. Those are the same analysts who naïvely think GILD has the all-oral HCV market locked up.

[DewDiligence]

NYT piece on all-oral HCV regimens cites price range of $60-100K for course of treatment:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/05/health/hepatitis-c-a-silent-killer-meets-its-match.html

The author doesn’t state the source for the pricing info.