I think this guy is leaving out a few items, like the fact the government has warrants to effectively dilute the share count from 1 billion something to 5 billion something. and Preferred shareholders would have to be redeemed, accounting for roughly 19 billion. So (300-19)/5 = $55.00-$60.00/share. If I were going to have an ample margin of safety I'd just cut that in half and say it was $30.00/share. Then again if things do work out in favor of shareholders, fannie mae is likely to be a company I would never sell my interest in. Bought at 25 cents a share last October, rode it to over $5.00 and didn't sell a share, why? because I'm betting heavy on America. Fannie and Freddie are indestructible institutions, the fact that the government was forced to put them into conservatorship and not receivership explains this simply enough.