I agree with your "behind the scenes" analysis. A gradual takeover of the company's stock has been occurring since early spring of this year.
However, this has been intentionally hidden from the public due to the nature of a Creeping Takeover. Usually some news is able to leak out regarding negotiations between companies in a takeover situation. However, most of the supporting info we have for a merger is subject to interpretation making it difficult for investors trying to piece things together.
Hang in there with your convictions and wait for it to happen.