Replies to post #34137 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[jaybe]

iAndy, those are the figures I used...

My numbers assume more burn than Ed forecast. Japanese office is new, and we don't know how many pivotal trials come online, but to run out of cash in 2014 we'd have to burn $110M+ per quarter (I'm assuming $80M in my model).

Since ISTs are small proper Phase 2 trials are required in RET-NSCLC, FGFR-SCC, MTC, AML, Endometrial, and new FGFR-NSCLC, but unlikely any of these will be a pivotal trial in 2014. I think its reasonable to assume only pivotal for ALK+ Criz-resist., GIST, and possibly ALK+ Criz-naive.

I agree sub-$100M in cash would considered risky and attract vultures, but since the path to consistently positive earnings is clear and only one quarter away (Q1 '15), I don't think it limits operations.

JMHO...I will be happy to be proved wrong by more pivotal trails and new molecules.