Yep PB...so very true.."the trend is your friend"...the way I trade FOREX is the assumption that the trend is almighty on one hand but on the other hand I find that news releases forces many detours along the way and sometime even a return to the starting point.I have yet to see a trend that can be totally trusted for continuation.Its kinda like this...I start at Houston and my destination is Dallas..no doubt there will be numerous detours along the way and I trade those detours as best I can..also I find that tho everyone is so excited to get to Dallas that many fail to see a news release that causes a road closed sign to go up right in front of their eyes yet continue trading the "trend". Trading with Fibonacci will show you over and over that tho the market reacts to each significant level NO ONE can know for sure if the trend will die at 61.8 or gain strength at 61.8! Heres how I try to handle trend trading...I find a pair in what seems to have a trend in progress...next ..(in a downtrend for example)I look for the moving avg and time frame that shows consistently to resist on each touch of a countertrend move.It may be SMA20 on an M30 chart or SMA10 on an H4 chart...doesn't matter as long as its consistant and trendlines are declining sharply.Next I will short every bounce to the resistance level on the MA that's holding it down.This will work several times in a short trend and for long periods on long trends.On short trends I expect at least 3 reliable cycles before a strong countertrend move causes the 20 to be penetrated then be repelled by the next one..SMA50. Bottom line in all my rhetoric is I find that scalping is the only dependable way to grow an acct in FOREX...look at any TF and any chart and easily see theres only a reliable trend in a powerful carry trade..the rest of the charts are full of minor and major detours which may or may not reach the markets idea of a destination.Every fib level can be friend or foe...also..consider this on fib trading BTW...just across a key fib level stops abound...so just because a fib gets crossed doesn't mean a payday to enter that direction...when stops get triggered theres a strong move but often its a false move that reverses then trends the opposite way for hours on end. PB...I wonder how in the crap I got off into this mini novel so will stop for now and catch my breath!!(LOL)
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