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It's a gamble that has completely improved (IMHO) from last year.
In 2012, VRNG was staring at a lengthy trial process against a deeps pocket giant. The judge and jury didn't do it any favors either with the Laches ruling and inconsistent damages awarded. There has also been much spending asserting the NOK patents against ZTE all across the globe.
Fast forward to this summer and VRNG is in a much better position. The bogeyman has been exposed ('420 validation puts the re-exam process where it belongs) and HJJ has gotten around to taking some important steps. First, he has outlined supplemental damages (+ pre-post judgement interest) and telegraphed a 20.9% apportionment percentage. He has also moved this trial into the "show me" phase of GOOG's alleged non-infringement alternative for adwords. Big steps taken.
MSFT settlement has added $1 million + 6 patents (impossible to value) and an additional 5% of GOOG's liability (not withstanding the limitation provision). The ZTE case is gaining traction and we could start seeing some progress as early as autumn. VRNG should have filed its reply brief with the Fed Circuit, unless some odd ruling has come out allowing GOOG to re-file. I haven't seen an update since GOOG made the request and VRNG opposed it. Hopefully, the appeals process is moving forward behind the scenes, even if at a slow pace.
Overall, I consider the risk/return profile of VRNG today to be much different that it was last year. Yes, it's still a spec play that is best suited as a compliment to a larger portfolio. But when you consider the judgement in hand (including supp damages & interest), the cash on hand, and the likelihood that the ZTE litigation will bear some fruit... the downside makes it a pretty good speculative play.
As always, fundamental news could come out at any time that alters one's analysis of VRNG -- but that knife cuts both ways, as the change could be Good or Bad.
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