Replies to post #68788 on ajtj99's Market Pulse

[SteveO]

Just looking at the figures. I have had a good month already and got a bit defensive at the close. Still net long but stops are in everywhere that I an still holding.

[GregS]

ajti99,

Based on the inverse head and shoulders pattern formed on the NDX earlier in the year, we had a target for the NDX of something around 1750. Obviously we are getting close to that level. We have basically fulfilled the "measured move" for that pattern, but I suppose there is nothing in the theory that says the NDX can't continue higher. We have also broken out above the NDX 1700 range. I would expect at some point we will at least do a retest of the breakout level (1700ish) which may then become support.

My question though is this, do you think that since we have fullfilled the measured move of the inverse head and shoulders pattern, that we indeed breakdown below NDX 1700 once again, maybe in a substantial way?

Could this be a "fakeout breakout", or do you think this move continues higher? I see that max pain for the month says we go back under 1700, but I'd also bet this month that max pain doesn't mean squat.

I know you think we are headed lower by sometime later this year, from all the information I can gather it seems like the next few days/weeks are likely time for a top as well. Your thoughts, as always, are appreciated.

[SteveO]

They sure did kill those calls. Looks like 42 might be a good floor. 41 is still looking a bit drastic.