Vringoed. Ha! Great terminology! I've been through the same thing. Learn from my mistakes I guess. Gonna take profits on the way up, and refrain from daydreaming about the $10, $20, $50 buy-outs.
Speaking of Vringo, here's why I believe there is significantly more upside to W3D than VRNG:As of 8/27/13, here are some comparisons between VRNG and W3D based on each company's recent 10Q (VRNG data represented in left column, W3D in right): Market Cap - $270.7M.....................................$23.8M Today's PPS - $3.25........................................$0.28 OS - 83.2M..........................................85.2M Revenue 1H - $1.2M........................................$0 Net <loss> 1H - <$22.9M>.............................<$570K> Net <loss> per share 1H - <$0.28>................<$0.01> Avg. mthly cash burn - $1,828,000...............$110,834
Here are some other comparisons:Lawsuits - VRNG: VRNG beat GOOG at trial and was awarded $30.5M in past damages. The jury also decided that VRNG was entitled to a 3.5% royalty rate. So VRNG has a positive Markman ruling and a favorable verdict under its belt; WDDD has neither. VRNG left a ton of money on the table when they lost the laches decision. The jurors mathematical error also cost them about $100M, and the judge rejected VRNG's motion for new trial on this issue. VRNG will have a shot at reversing these big negatives on appeal, though I am not overly confident that the appellate court will reverse Judge Jackson on either of these issues.
VRNG has the potential for up to 7% in future royalties to April 4, 2016 based on approximately 20% of GOOG's U.S. Adwords revenue. GOOG has, however, thrown a monkey wrench in this potential revenue stream with its workaround claim. Hopefully, this workaround issue will be resolved by the end of the year to VRNG's benefit. Remember also that VRNG settled its lawsuit against MSFT for $1M, plus 5% of its recovery from GOOG.
I suspect the first appeal in this matter will be final by late-spring 2014, though I also suspect additional appellate issues to arise from the alleged workaround and running royalty rate. GOOG will delay paying VRNG until the end. VRNG also has lawsuits pending against ZTE in the UK, France, Germany, and Australia based on the 500 patents the company purchased from Nokia. Assuming VRNG is successful, it must pay a 35% royalty to Nokia on any recovery above $22M. The first trial against ZTE will be in Germany and is scheduled to begin in October.
So a patient VRNG investor has much to look forward to and has the potential for quite a handsome reward.
Lawsuit - WDDD: As of today, Worlds has only one lawsuit, which is against ATVI. For a breakdown of one person's reasonable estimate of the past and future damages, see EDVA's estimates here -http://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/148826979. Assuming a positive infringement verdict at the end of 2014 with past damages based on a royalty rate of 3.5% from ATVI's World of Warcraft and Call of Duty revenues (EDVA estimated a 7% rate), WDDD has the potential for an award of $166M. Unlike VRNG, WDDD has plead willful infringement. If Kindrin notified ATVI many years ago of the patents at issue, as he stated in his interview with JoeNatural, WDDD has a great case for willful infringement. If so, the judge would treble the damages, resulting in an estimated past damages award of $498M (about half of EDVA's estimate). I have yet to see any objective evidence to support that WDDD will have an issue with laches.
WDDD's patents expire in August 2020. So it has the potential to receive 5.5 years of future royalties.
WDDD clearly has some major hurdles to cross, two of which VRNG has successfully crossed - the Markman hearing and trial. And the risk of WDDD's potential inability to get through the Markman and beat ATVI at trial is no doubt reflected in the discounted share price. Having said that, considering all of the differences and between WDDD and VRNG, I believe the current difference in each company's market share heavily supports my opinion that there is much more upside with an investment in Worlds than Vringo.
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