I've never been as bearish as many on the thread - more in the middle, like MythMan - his trading range call was a good one. You may have noticed me defending Meehan - his calls were really good, too, but I was defending him before they panned out. I don't do charts - just look at long term macroeconomics for the market in general, and study company balance sheets and business news for companies in specific. The companies I am interested in aren't doing so hot, so I either have to wait or else find new companies to be interested in.
My job isn't conducive to trading, and I don't really have a talent for it anyway.
I've been spending my free time studying the Great Crash - have wanted to write a book about the Great Depression for several years now and decided to go for it. Working title, "Where Did The Money Go?"
According to William Gann, from the high in 1929 to the low in July, 1932, the value of all stocks traded on the NYSE went from over $90 billion to $12 to $15 billion - that's down about 85% - we haven't seen that. Individual stocks have done that but not the market as a whole. From Feb., 1933 to July, 1933, the NYSE went up over 100%. By December, 1935, the market was up over 300% from the 1932 lows.
So there is plenty of precedent for a very strong rally - and economics were far worse then. 25% unemployment in 1932-1933.
I am not bullish about the economy - more in "wait and see" mode.
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