Interesting Sryinex. I see you mentioned Passport in your analysis because Passport and Prospect should be thought about together.
Here are some thoughts. Prospect's debt is about $125 million more than Passport's. On a full exercise of all warrants and options, that $125 million dollars additional debt would amount to about $.50 per share. In other words, Prospect would likely fetch about $.50 less per share than Passport on a buyout.
Secondly, since they have to raise a lot less money, it would seem to be less likely that Passport would default. Here, however, there is a complication. Passport has a near term debt (Twin Buttes note) of $20 million that it will either have to renegotiate and push up or pay off. Prospect does not have that big of a near term challenge.
There is also Hunt properties in the Holbrook Basin but since they are private it is hard to evaluate their situation.
Prospect and Passport together could probably be mined for 6 million tons per year if an all-out operation were mounted. I think it could be done for $6 billion capex or less. BHP's Jansen project of 8 million tons per year is slated to cost at least $14 billion. Therefore, even if a major were to pay $1 billion each for Prospect and Passport (a little less for Prospect because of the higher debt obligation), it would be way ahead of the Jansen cost. [That would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 per share, given the current shares and derivatives outstanding.]
Also, an operation in the U.S., because of the immediate proximity to U.S. markets and resultant much lower transportation costs, would be preferable to a Canadian operation.
I do not intend to sell my Passport at all.
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