Replies to post #32605 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[bellweather1]

A 30mg Strategy?

Yes, would give them that option, without compromising the premium price for full dosage-

Unless of course, data showed that the difference in 3 month transcript levels for 30 vs 45mgs was negligible, in which case, if the price for 30 was significantly lower, and Docs started to use mostly 30mgs, it could hurt revenue,

unless, again, of course, total market share rises significantly to make up(or exceed)the difference.

I guess the bottom line question is, if we are able to get essentially the same results(but with a competitive(to superior)side effect profile)at 30mgs, and MD Anderson/Cortes and EPIC confirm this,

will we be able to lower prices enough(for 30mgs)to capture most if not all of the second line in addition to gains in 1st line for an expanding number of cohorts?

Since I assume that Pona will never be able to compete with a generic imatinib profitably, Ariad(via Cortes) may be laying the groundwork for capturing the largest share of the second line with a reduced 30mg price option that undercuts the other 2nd lines while maintaining the premium price for 45mgs for those that need it.

Assuming we can demonstrate superior efficacy for the majority of cml pts via this approach, this strikes me as an excellent, forward-looking commercial strategy to capture market share, not to mention addressing any residual concerns about side effects that may remain.