Replies to post #3273 on Global Value Investing

[bradford86]

i hope so. i was on the phone with someone from d e b t w i r e the other day, fwiw. i had them calculating share price valuations north of $30, freehand.

[bradford86]

$12 seems to be a wall.

if you look at it.

$6 in january to $8 in february to $10 in march to $8 in april to $12 in may to $10 in June to $12 in July.

so..

+33%
+25%
-20%
+50%
-17%
+20%

so, my guess is that somewhere between $13-$17 is where it'll get stuck next. you figure that the LFCF of $250M/annum represents an average rate of $7/year of price appreciation minimum if you have a constant EV.

Starting at $6 we should be at least $13 by EOY. lol. $20 by next year EOY. $27 by EOY 2015.

It's frankly pretty dang sad, but the forecast is obviously dismal... the market thinks that they won't exist in 2 years with positive EBITDA.