Weekly leading economic indicators are declining, and have been flat or declining for 6 months. Normally, the market actually closely follows those numbers. This is the first time in 15 years i have followed them, that the market went up big time with bad numbers.
The CNFAI 3wma is at -.43, below .7 is a recession. However, unless that monthly number comes in much lower next month, we are still a couple months away from a recesssion.
Last time it got under -.7 was february 2008. It then got the unheard of -4% in January 2009, and got over -.7 by june 2009.
The leading weekly indicators got to -30. an insane number, in Sept 2008
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