Replies to post #82598 on Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[mrfence]

Let me get back to you with my best answer! I've got outside business to chase this afternoon.

My quick answer is that while the market is open, all the algos MMs etc. react to retail that's paying attention to Watts testimony, etc.

Even the most dominate players must pay attention to retail sentiment unless we're talking about small less liquid issues where the dominant player can control the stock.

FnF are to big to be controlled by any single power IMO, and retail is the collective wildcard. At the end of the day the retail consumer will decide what the value is.

Therefore, it will end badly for anyone trying to manipulate the stock to far away from its organic sentiment.

[~ NT ~]

That's a good post Obit.

From what I have seen (and have been able to gauge the movements pretty well so far since May), these are the key factors that move this ticker (in simple words, of course):

Greed - Chase for retail, Squeeze for algos. MOASS on the run phase.

Fear - The 'get out while I can, with what I can' sentiment for many who are not familiar with charts - Algos have a ball in this phase shorting more and covering.

News - The way the media projects it. Less impact on lower volume, vice versa. Coz people believe what they 'want' to believe.

Hype - The trend is the friend. Whatever the masses feel is 'correct' for 'sometime'. I like to make my exit before the masses. Coz too much movement too soon calls for a correction.

The more this ticker moves, the more juice there is in it, for the big boys. This is my strongest conclusion till date - they will keep moving the hell out of this till they can. Both up and down. Coz getting the retail money is the 'primary' concern for them IMO. Right now it is easier for them to control coz of the low PPS (larger position sizes compared to the float). Later if/when the market cap increases, the manipulation will get harder.

I have seen that after a correction and just before an imminent bad news, the algos like to short more - With the notion that 'once burnt, twice shy' people will not buy again + Those fearing the news will sell. Those are the times the algos win. I bet with the algos, not against them. Example - the drop last week.

However, during a run, the algos keep shorting. In that phase I bet against the algos coz the retail greed outweighs anything else IMO.

I always track the news and the recent price / volume movement to make my decisions based on what 'others might think of this news' and not what 'I interpret of this news'. The reality is not important in my opinion for the short term. How things are 'perceived' by the masses is more important. Coz lets face it, it's a big pool where everybody puts their money in, our goal is to take the juice from that pool.