Replies to post #20708 on Biotech Values

[drbio45]

elevated liver enzymes

Analysts went ga ga because ambrisentan did have elevated liver enzymes in their trial but Thelin only had 3 percent and that was 18 week data. I believe it may just be that 12 weeks was too soon to cause the elevations.

The lack of interaction with heparin is an advantage but most doctors don't seem to find that a problem.

I don't think it makes up for the 1.5 year lead that thelin will have getting to the market first. It is a much better drug than TRacleer is but Ambrisentan is not that much if any better than thelin

Encysive should not have dropped as much as it did in my opinion. It is 6500 times more selective to endothlin a than b. Ambrisentan is only 20 times more selective to a than b and I think that is a big deal

[RockRat]

Hi, drbio45,

I gather you for the most part only reply to posts specifically addressed to you, so let me refer you to my post to OakesCS about the ENCY/MYOG divergence:

http://www.investorshub.com/boards/replies.asp?msg=8929478

I'm assuming you guys meant that ARIES excluded CHD patients (as opposed to CT patients) while the STRIDE trials included them. I we make that substitution in your post, would you agree with these sentences:

"Myogen also eliminated people with congenital heart disease from this trial. Those people don't do as well as the rest of the population with the endothelin antagonists."

I'll note observations by others (including yourself, I think) that a) STRIDE was 18 week data, while ARIES was 12 week data, and b) ARIES inclusion criteria had a minimum baseline walking distance while STRIDE did not, perhaps meaning the ARIES population was healthier. Also, dosing and safety advantages of Thelin versus Tracleer have been mentioned. rkrw points out we're likely to see combination therapy here, and that inhaled Remodulin -- about three years away -- could pose a threat in the earlier stage PAH populations addressed by Tracleer, Thelin, and Ambrisentan. And you've noted the variability in PAH trials, including one PII trial for Thelin that seemed comparable with the ARIES result.

Further discussion has been done on SI:

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/subject.aspx?subjectid=56184

Including some references to you thought provoking post that I'm replying to -- and for which I thank you -- as well as an attempt at valuation. Bullish on ENCY, and looking for an entry.

Regards, RockRat