Replies to post #68112 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[dacaw]

Capacity & shortages

I think we should keep in mind a couple of factors.

1. There may be induced shortages as AMD seeks to introduce new steppings. I guess that they may be launching the SiGe strained stepping about the same time as Yonah, i.e quite soon. Best to clear the channel of existing stock.

2. In the past the grey market has been a problem with big OEMs overordering then dumping their surplus on the open market. This has been solved, in part, by the Processor-in-box. Thus big OEMs are less likely to overbuy and we may see shortages in built computers lines even though there is a ready supply of parts for the DIYer.

[jhalada]

Bobs,

One thing you need to add into the equation is packaging and testing (and its capacity), which we hear little about, but it can be a bottleneck the same way wafer processing can be.

I think it is quite possible that AMD has been running full steam for the better part of this year in Dresden, saving K7 wafers, some 130nm K8 wafers as well, and tons of Rev E wafers. Maybe it is the packaging and testing that is operating on the Just-In-Time basis...

Joe